The automotive industry is on the brink of a transformative shift, especially concerning the role of stamping parts in manufacturing. Over the next decade, while there may be structural shifts in the utilization of stamping parts, the complete replacement of this process seems unlikely. The following aspects outline the factors influencing this trend:

1. Importance of Stamping Parts in the Short Term

Cost Efficiency and High Productivity: The stamping process offers significant economic advantages during large-scale production, making it suitable for the manufacture of components such as doors, hoods, and fenders. In the context of emerging markets and mid-range vehicles, cost remains a critical deciding factor.

Material Advancements: Ongoing enhancements in stamping technology, particularly regarding high-strength steel (HSS) and aluminum alloys through methods like hot stamping, support both lightweight construction and safety requirements, thereby extending the lifespan of stamping processes.

Mature Supply Chains: The automotive supply chain is essentially built around stamping processes; transitioning to entirely new technologies incurs considerable costs and potential risks, making immediate change challenging.

2. Long-Term Challenges Posed by Alternative Technologies

The Shift to Lightweight Materials: Emerging materials such as carbon fiber composites and advanced plastics may supplant some metal stamping processes due to their lightweight and corrosion-resistant properties. However, their high costs and the complexities of mass production pose barriers to wider adoption.

Impact of Integrated Die-Casting: Technologies such as integrated die-casting, exemplified by models like the Tesla Model Y's rear base plate, promise to reduce the complexity of assembly by minimizing part count. Nonetheless, it's crucial to evaluate the economic implications of mold costs alongside production flexibility.

Additive Manufacturing: While 3D printing may carve a niche in producing small batches with intricate designs, it remains unlikely to disrupt stamping’s dominance in high-volume production scenarios.

3. Differentiation Trends in Specialized Fields

Body Coverings: Stamping will likely retain its leading role, though the increasing utilization of aluminum demands more advanced techniques, such as servo stamping.

Structural Components: These may see competition from both integrated die-casting and composite materials, especially in the production of specialized electric vehicle components like battery pack cases.

Interior and Functional Parts: The rivalry with processes like plastic injection molding is intensifying, likely leading to a decline in the share of stamped parts in these areas.

4. The Impact of New Energy Vehicles

The introduction of electric vehicle platforms necessitates innovative designs for components such as battery packs and motor mounts, potentially favoring non-stamping alternatives. Nevertheless, the demand for lightweight body structures continues to support aluminum stamping parts.

As manufacturers face pressure to reduce costs, established stamping processes may endure in mature markets. In contrast, high-end models might adapt more readily to new materials and technologies.

5. Forecasting Future Alternatives

Short-Term Predictions (5-10 Years): The proportion of stamping parts in automotive production could gradually decrease from approximately 60%-70% to 50%-60%, with core applications remaining stable.

Long-Term Predictions (Exceeding 10 Years): Should breakthroughs occur in integrated die-casting and composite technologies, the share of stamping parts might further reduce to 30%-40%. However, stamping will likely remain relevant for specific components and in emerging markets.

In conclusion, while the automotive industry's dependence on stamping parts is predicted to wane gradually, a complete phase-out is unlikely. Several factors will influence its ongoing relevance, including:

• The scalability of new processes (e.g., die-casting, 3D printing).
• The advancement speed of materials technology.
• Trade-offs between cost, performance, and environmental sustainability made by automotive manufacturers.

Industry participants should closely monitor innovations in high-strength stamping technology and multi-process integration strategies (like stamping combined with welding and die-casting) to navigate the future competitive landscape.